SpaceX’s Mars mission has been assigned a more concrete timeline with its first launch expected in 2026. Elon Musk’s Mars city is still years from materializing into something concrete, but the billionaire is getting closer to jumpstarting the mission. The SpaceX uncrewed Mars mission was discussed in an X/Twitter post on September 8, where Musk suggested that if things went according to plan, a crewed flight could be on the horizon within four years.
The SpaceX Mars 2026 launch is extremely ambitious but considering the performance of the company’s previous spaceships is it realistic? We’ll have to see.
Image: SpaceX
SpaceX’s Mars Mission Takes Shape—A Multiplanetary Future Remains the Goal
“The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens,” CEO Elon Musk revealed on his platform, breaking down his vision for the future. In the post, he explained that SpaceX’s initial uncrewed Mars missions could provide clarity on how effectively the ships land safely on Mars, intact and unharmed. This half of the Starship’s journey to Mars would ideally begin by 2026. Following this phase, within 4 years, crewed ships could be prepared to make the same journey.
The success of the crewed missions will allow flight rates to “grow exponentially,” keeping us on track to be Musk’s plans of a “self-sustaining city in about 20 years.” Further elaborating on the timeline, he also stated that 4 years was the best-case scenario but a 6-year timeline could also be expected.
All of this information was revealed in response to another post by the SpaceX CEO, explaining the company was the first to create a fully reusable rocket stage and made it economically viable.
“It currently costs about a billion dollars per ton of useful payload to the surface of Mars. That needs to be improved to $100k/ton to build a self-sustaining city there, so the technology needs to be 10,000 times better. Extremely difficult, but not impossible.”
Colonizing space has been a central concept for space explorers for years now, and a home base on Mars is now the most viable strategy for this outer space expansion.
The Space X website clearly spells out why it believes Mars should be our target for establishing a multi-planetary civilization. Mars has been touted as one of Earth’s closest habitable regions, and the presence of decent sunlight makes life sustainable for us. “It is a little cold,” the website admits, “but we can warm it up.”
Further elaborating on the purpose of the SpaceX Mars mission, it states that the planet’s atmosphere can be compressed to grow plants that are essential for our survival. “Gravity on Mars is about 38% of that of Earth, so you would be able to lift heavy things and bound around.”
Is the SpaceX 2026 Launch Timeline Realistic?
Sending the Starship to Mars by 2026 sounds like an extremely challenging mission for the company, but SpaceX hasn’t reached these deadlines without the merit of previous success. According to Reuters, the company’s plans to build a reusable satellite launcher and moon lander have seen considerable progress with the Starship, completing a full test mission around the globe on the rocket’s fourth try. Space X, in collaboration with Intuitive Machines and NASA, was also able to land a ship on the moon back in February.
“In the past four years, SpaceX has launched thirteen human spaceflight missions, safely flying 50 crewmembers to and from Earth’s orbit and creating new opportunities for humanity to live, work, and explore what is possible in space. Dragon’s 46 missions overall to orbit have delivered critical supplies, scientific research, and astronauts to the International Space Station, while also opening the door for commercial astronauts to explore Earth’s orbit.”
—SpaceX
Elon Musk’s Mars city plans aside, SpaceX has been making slow but certain advances in space. On September 10, the company is expected to launch its Polaris Dawn mission with a Dragon spacecraft for a low-Earth multi-day orbit. The mission objectives include a goal to reach the highest Earth orbit flow since the Apollo program and participate in the first-ever extravehicular activity (EVA) by commercial astronauts wearing SpaceX-developed EVA suits. The crew is expected to support a few research studies and experiments on their journey.
Despite these successes, we don’t yet see how SpaceX will be able to successfully support a landing on Mars so soon. Even if SpaceX’s uncrewed Mars mission is successful, the time it would take to bring the ship back, study the data, send another test flight out, and bring it back would suggest a much longer timeline than the 4 years expected for a crewed mission. Still, SpaceX has a talented group of employees who have achieved a lot in the last few years, so it may not be impossible for Starship to land on Mars by 2026, even if the timeline is a tad bit unrealistic.