For an app that’s designed to share fun videos and participate in silly dance trends, things are not looking as lighthearted anymore. The TikTok ban in the U.S. has been under discussion for months now, and a date has been finalized for the ban—January 19, 2025. Unless the Supreme Court gives in to the Chinese company ByteDance at the last minute, or the company finds a U.S. buyer, the app is expected to make a permanent exit from the U.S.
In the last week, TikTok alternatives have seen a sharp spike in user numbers, with many Americans vowing to take their business somewhere other than anything Meta has to offer. Unfortunately for the U.S. government which is determined to safeguard its users from China, disgruntled users have switched over to another Chinese networking app, RedNote. The irony of the switchover may seem amusing at first, but it also shows us exactly where TikTok users stand on the matter of the ban.
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The TikTok Ban in the U.S. Explained—What Is Happening and Why?
According to the ruling of The United States Supreme Court, the TikTok ban is to go into effect on January 19. Initially, there was hope that users who already had the app could continue to use it even if it was taken off the app stores.
This would mean that users could still watch and upload content without any direct repercussions, but they would no longer receive updates or support from the app’s developers. While this may have been preferable to users, it would have left them more vulnerable to malicious forces than ever before.
Now, reports have indicated that the app may choose to go dark and cut off its services for U.S. users completely instead of keeping the app disconnected but alive. Considering this was the strategy employed by TikTok when it was banned in India, it does appear to be the likely response to a full ban.
TikTok’s U.S. shutdown is expected to cut over 170 million Americans off from the app, which is still below the 200 million users who were eliminated from the company’s target audience when it was banned in India. Over the last few months, the company has fought hard to keep its business in the U.S. running, however, the government has remained unconvinced.
Why Is TikTok at Risk of Going Away?
For years, Chinese companies have regularly been seen as a threat to the U.S. economy. More recently, however, these companies have been under greater scrutiny to prove that they don’t pose a security threat to the region’s users. From electric vehicles to drones, companies with origins in China are at risk of being asked to take their business out of the U.S.
More recently, a bill passed by Congress and signed by the outgoing presidency led to the Supreme Court challenging TikTok owner ByteDance. The company was accused of accessing the data of U.S. citizens and manipulating the content they viewed.
Despite a lack of sufficient evidence, these accusations have been upheld, and the company was given the option to exit the U.S. or sell its business so a more local authority could be in charge of it.
According to the Reports on the TikTok Ban, What Happens Next?
Many have challenged the results of the proceedings and called it “unconstitutional,” but it is still unclear if the Supreme Court might reverse its ruling. If it does, ByteDance may have some more time to negotiate a deal with a buyer, but if TikTok’s U.S. shutdown moves forward, the app may become inaccessible for users on Sunday.
The incoming presidential power has now indicated that it may be willing to help strike a deal and let the 170 million Americans continue to use the app, however, there is no information on how this could be achieved or if it will be a real priority going forward.
The Trump cabinet may take on the matter once more, even after the TikTok ban in the U.S. is enforced. However, the only real solution appears to be selling the app. ByteDance has repeatedly indicated its unwillingness to sell the business to an American buyer and lose all access to the platform it has built up over the years.
From Frank McCourt and Kevin O’Leary to Elon Musk and YouTuber Mr. Beast, multiple interested parties are looking to purchase the app, but it will all be meaningless if the current owner does not plan on selling off the U.S. wing of its business.
The TikTok Ban Does Leave Us with Some Winners—Who Succeeds if TikTok Loses?
It is well-known that Chinese social media platforms are heavily regulated and operate on a network that is far more closed off than what we see in the U.S. For the few platforms that have remained open to outsiders, this month has been a time of unprecedented growth. “TikTok refugees” are now flocking to these very Chinese apps, both as a way to take advantage of the platform and as a way to show the U.S. government that taking TikTok away is not a real solution to the perceived problem.
Users of the app RedNote, locally known as “Xiaohongshu,” have begun welcoming wayward TikTok users into their folds and introducing them to some of the local culture. This collaboration has pushed the app to the top of the iPhone App Store charts. Not all of the existing users have been quite so welcoming, but the American population has arrived on the app nonetheless.
What’s more interesting, is that to make the most of the in-app experiences and communicate with existing members, new users are even going to great lengths to learn Mandarin. Language learning app Duolingo noted a 216% spike in U.S. users learning Mandarin in light of the TikTok ban in the U.S., emerging as another unexpected winner.
Meta and Google May Also Gain Revenue from the Ban, but It Is the Content Creators Who Will Suffer the Most
While users are working to stay away from YouTube Shorts or Instagram Reels as an alternative to TikTok, it does appear that Google and Meta may also win big in light of the bad. According to an analysis from eMarketer, these two businesses could see advertisers channel their revenue back into these platforms in the absence of TikTok, causing a spike in their own overall performance.
The slow fall of Twitter/X has given rise to the success of Bluesky and in the same way, we’ll have to see what the TikTok ban in the U.S. does for competitor platforms and if any of them are truly able to fill the space left by the app. The population recovered more or less when the Vine app went away and in the same way, most will likely move on to a different app this time as well.
The hardest to be hit will be the content creators and influencers who make their livelihood from the platform. For those who have previously managed to expand their following across platforms, it should be easier to maintain an engaged audience, but being de-platformed and losing your primary means of income is never easy.
The TikTok algorithm has always been regarded as one of the best for creators, and once the app goes away, a replacement platform may not bring these creators the same level of success. Still, users remain hopeful that they will be able to find their footing elsewhere soon enough.
